Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
