Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
