Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
