Daily Homicides in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The mean number of per-day killings per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh official data. However, security analysts have cautioned that homicide data could fail to point to better national security.

Significant Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of almost 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with nearly 87 when the President took the leadership in September. This information was shared by the director of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen over these past months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the smallest amount of murders were registered for any November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily military operations to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her public safety strategy for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

However, security analysts warned that focusing solely on homicide data to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is notably true given the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive information if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same period the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to properly recognize and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it might obscure periods when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day average makes surges of violence unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can highlight the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico remains plagued by extreme bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to build a story of improvement. Politically it’s highly successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas concluded.